Terrorist scenario - South East Asia

1. Terrorist Scenario – South East Asia

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MIT Lincoln Laboratory

2. Terrorism

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Al Qaeda linked bombing of Australian Embassy in
Indonesia on Sep 8, 2004
MIT Lincoln Laboratory

3. JI comments…

"We decided to settle accounts with Australia,
one of the worst enemies of God and Islam ...
"We advise all Australians in Indonesia to
leave, or we will make it a grave for them,
God willing
Australian government has ignored previous
warnings and taken part "in the war against
our brothers in Iraq and supported the
invading forces."
Jemaah Islamiya (JI) - Southeast Asian arm of al Qaeda
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory

4. Terrorist Scenario – Indonesia

• Regional Summary
• Current Threat Conditions
• U.S. National Security Objectives
– CINC Operational Objectives
• Blue Force Structure
– ASEAN Member Force Structure
– Coalition Force Structure
– Force Employment
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory

5. Regional Summary

Indonesia – A country of unrest; A country vital to the world economy
Formerly Dutch East-Indies
Of 17,000 islands, 6,000 are inhabited
East-west expanse: 3,200 miles;
equivalent distance = Ireland to Iran
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200nm Exclusive Maritime Economic Zone
12nm Maritime Territorial Zone
240 million people – 19 languages
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Muslim – 88%; Christian – 8%; Other – 3%

6. Indonesia – A Country of Unrest

• United S.E. Asia/Island ethnic groups through diplomacy
backed by force at the end of WWII
• Assumed “Presidency” maintaining control through military
• Lost conflict to gain Malaysia as part of Indonesia
• Internal unrest and a failed military coup in 1966 ultimately
removed him from power the following year
Sukarno
1945-1967
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory

7. Indonesia – A Country of Unrest

Sukarno
1945-1967
Suharto
• Senior military officer under Sukarno
• Used military to control dissident groups seeking
more autonomy/independence from the central
government
• Won seven “unopposed” elections until economic
catastrophe and internal dissatisfaction with
military controls forced him to step down
1967-1998
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory

8. Indonesia – A Country of Unrest

Sukarno
1945-1967
Suharto
1967-1998
Habibie
• Suharto’s Vice-President and
hand-picked successor
• Stepped in to run the
Government until the 1999
elections could be held
• The country’s first truly
democratic elections
1998-1999
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory

9. Indonesia – A Country of Unrest

• Unable to revive the economy,
separatist activity increased
• Military abuses cause intense
protest & migration of refugees
• Muslim radical groups
strengthen their foothold
• Parliament removes him from
office
Sukarno
1945-1967
Suharto
1967-1998
Habibie
1998-1999
Wahid
1999-2001
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory

10. Indonesia – A Country of Unrest

Sukarno
1945-1967
Suharto
Sukarnoputri
1967-1998
2001-2004
Habibie
1998-1999
Wahid
1999-2001
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory

11. Current President

• Indonesia’s first-ever directly elected President
• Pledged to outlaw al Qaeda linked JI
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory

12. Indonesia – A Country of Unrest

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MIT Lincoln Laboratory

13. Indonesia – A Country of Unrest

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MIT Lincoln Laboratory

14. Indonesia – A Country of Unrest

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MIT Lincoln Laboratory

15. Indonesia – A Country of Unrest

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MIT Lincoln Laboratory

16. Indonesia – A Country of Unrest

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MIT Lincoln Laboratory

17. Indonesia – Vital to the World Economy

Malacca
Strait
South
China
Sea
Pacific
Ocean
Malacca Strait
• 600nm long, 17 to 54m deep
• Primary conduit for IndoEurope to E. Asia maritime
traffic
Indian Ocean
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– Virtually all E. Asia oil shipped
through the Malacca Straits
(36% of all ship traffic)
– Over $1.1 trillion (U.S.) in
goods transit annually
– 50,000 ships transit each
year; 137/day
60% of Malaysia/Indonesia
fish catch comes from
Malacca Straits
MIT Lincoln Laboratory

18. Indonesia – Vital to the World Economy

Malacca
Strait
South
China
Sea
Sunda Strait
Indian Ocean
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Pacific
Ocean
Sunda Strait
• Secondary conduit for Indo-
Europe to E. Asia maritime
traffic
– Adds 2 sailing days to
route
– Can not absorb overflow
should Malacca Strait
close
MIT Lincoln Laboratory

19. Indonesia – Vital to the World Economy

Malacca
Strait
South
China
Sea
Pacific
Ocean
Lombok/Makassar Straits
• Primary conduit for Indo-
Sunda Strait
Lombok
Strait
Indian Ocean
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Europe to Pacific maritime
traffic
– Adds 5 sailing days to
route should Malacca
Strait close
Lombok Strait handles all
shipping traffic between
Australia and East Asia
MIT Lincoln Laboratory

20. Indonesia Al Qaeda Connection

• Guerrillas of Free Aceh Movement - GAM
– Muslim separatist, 4,000 strong demand
independence of Aceh Province
– Hosted bin Laden’s #2, Ayman Al-Zawahiri
& al Qaeda’s former military chief,
Mohammed Atef in June 2000
• Jemaah Islamiyah (JI)
– Demand creation of an Islamic state
consisting of portions of Thailand,
Malaysia, Philippines, & Indonesia
– Responsible for Christmas 2000 & Bali
bombings
– Lieutenants trained in Camp Chaldun,
Afghanistan; created sleeper cells across
Indonesia
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory

21. Threat Summary

• Indonesia intelligence believes GAM and
JI have formed a cooperative alliance
– The alliance has been independently
confirmed by CIA operatives in-country
GAM’s objective is to gain world recognition for
their 28-year independence struggle & force the
Government to the bargaining table or replace the
current administration with one that will negotiate
JI wants to devastate the Indonesian economy
prior to the 2004 general election so that the
administration will topple or be unelectable
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory

22. Threat Summary

GAM and JI strategies may be designed to
take advantage of the recent merging of
Islamic political parties in Indonesia
– The Crescent Moon and Star Party (PBB) and
the National Awakening Party (PKB) have
consolidated party platforms for the 2004
election
Pledge to fight rampant corruption, particularly at the
local and provincial levels where Government officials
and the military receive kickbacks from illicit gambling,
prostitution, and drug businesses
Pledge to build a “religious police force” to enforce
Sharia-based laws
– Combined, the two parties command and
unprecedented 35 to 40% of the voters which
will overcome the four remaining parties
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory

23. GAM/JI Course of Action

Disrupt Indonesia’s oil and gas and tourist industry
– Targets:
Foreign hotels, night clubs, and tourist attractions across the
country and random kidnapping of foreigners
Off-shore oil rigs in Malacca Strait
Natural gas liquidization plants in Aceh
Disrupt world shipping traffic in the straits
– Methods:
Piracy
Ship-to-shore missiles/artillery
Mine-laying
Scuttling in the channel
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Intelligence has determined Aceh and JI intend to
simultaneously disrupt commercial shipping in all
primary straits in S.E. Asia
MIT Lincoln Laboratory

24. Malacca Strait

Shoreline strike zone
Malacca Strait Closure
• Would effect over 50% of the worlds shipping vessels
• Would require all of the world’s excess
shipping tonnage to make up the lost tonnage due
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increased number of sailing days through alternate
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routes
Narrowest
Point:
MIT
Lincoln Laboratory
Singapore Strait – 1.5nm

25. Malacca Strait

Shoreline strike zone
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Narrowest
Point:
MIT
Lincoln Laboratory
Singapore Strait – 1.5nm

26. Malacca Strait

Shoreline strike zone
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Narrowest
Point:
MIT
Lincoln Laboratory
Singapore Strait – 1.5nm

27. Malacca Strait

Malaysia
Singapore
Indonesia
Shoreline strike zone
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Narrowest
Point:
MIT
Lincoln Laboratory
Singapore Strait – 1.5nm

28. Alternate Routes

Sunda
Strait
Shoreline
strike zone
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Lombok Strait
MIT Lincoln Laboratory

29. Sunda Strait

Sumatra
Java
Sunda
Strait
Sunda
Strait
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Lombok Strait
MIT Lincoln Laboratory

30. Lombok Strait

Bali
Sunda
Strait
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Lombok
Strait
Lombok Strait
MIT Lincoln Laboratory

31. U.S. National Objectives

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Assist South East Asia nation’s efforts to
identify and remove terrorist threats within
their borders
Prevent South East Asia terrorist
organizations from closing Indonesia’s sea
lanes and creating a world economic crisis
Protect commercial ships transiting
Indonesia’s sea lanes traffic from terrorist
attack thereby minimizing costly insurance
increases
MIT Lincoln Laboratory

32. U.S. National Strategy

Support the Association of South East
Asian Nations (ASEAN) to keep the sea
lanes open
– ASEAN nations monitor ports and shoreline
access to straits
– ASEAN coalition partners (including the U.S.)
form picket lines at entrances to the straits
Through bi-lateral agreements support
Indonesian, Thailand, and Malaysia military
and domestic police forces in coordinated
counter-terrorism operations against GAM
& JI
– Economic aid, law enforcement assistance,
and cooperative military counter-terrorist
operations
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory

33. ASEAN Coalition for Sea Lane Protection

Association of South East Asia Nations
providing forces to maintain sea lanes
–
–
–
–
–
Coalition partners providing forces to
maintain sea lanes
–
–
–
–
–
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Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Australia
Britain
China
Japan
United States
MIT Lincoln Laboratory

34. ASEAN Coalition for Sea Lane Protection

USCINCPAC
CINC JTF-Seal
Supporting CINCs
USTRANSCOM
USSTATCOM
Operational & Tactical Control
SOCOM
Combatants
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PACAF
Combatants
Coalition Commands
Coalition
Commands
Coalition
CoalitionCommands
Commands
Tactical Control
PACFLT
Combatants
Operational
Control
Coalition
Combatants
Coalition
Combatants
Coalition
CoalitionCombatants
Combatants
MIT Lincoln Laboratory

35. Sea Lane Protection AOR

ASEAN
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
Philippines
ASEAN Coalition
China & Japan
Australia
Great Britain
United States
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory

36. Sea Lane Protection – U.S. Forces

Malacca Strait AOR
Platform
PACFLT
Assets
SOCOM
Assets
PACAF
Assets
Frigate (FFG-7)
Destroyer (DD)
MCS-12
- CH-53E helos
- SAR helos
- EOD team
MCM
SSN (Fast Attack)
P-3
Qty
2
3
1
8
2
1
2
1
3
Location
Makassar Strait AOR
Platform
Mouth of Malacca Strait Frigate (FFG-7)
Mouth of Malacca Strait Destroyer (DD)
Malacca Strait
MCS-12 (retired)
- CH-53E helos
- SAR helos
- EOD team
Malacca Strait
MCM
Malacca Strait
SSN (Fast Attack)
Singapore
P-3
Qty Location
2
2
1
8
2
1
2
1
3
North of Makassar Strait
North of Makassar Strait
Makassar Strait
Spec. Forces Team 1
Assigned to Indonesia
Spec. Forces Team 1
Marine Spec. Forces
Company to board ships
Assigned to Indonesia
Marine Spec. Forces
Company to board ships
MC2A*
KC-10*
Singapore
Singapore
Mactan AB, Philippines
Mactan AB, Philippines
2
2
MC2A*
KC-135*
2
2
Makassar Strait
Makassar Strait
Mactan AB, Philippines
*MC2A and Tankers also support U.S. Counter-Terrorist operations
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory

37. Sea Lane Protection – Coalition Forces

Platform
Aussie
Assets
British
Assets
Chinese
Assets
Japanese
Assets
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Frigate (FFG) - ANZAC class
Off-shore Patrol Boat (PBG) – Fremantle class
Mine Countermeasure (MCM) – Bandicoot class
Frigate (FFG) - Adelaide class
Off-shore Patrol Boat (PBG) – Fremantle class
Frigate (FFG) - ANZAC class
Frigate (FFG) - Adelaide class
Off-shore Patrol Boat (PBG) – Fremantle class
Off-shore PG (PBG)
Mine Countermeasure (MCM) – Huon class
Maritime Patrol Aircraft (AP-3C)
Refueling Aircraft (KC-135)
Frigate (FFG) – Type 23 Duke Class
Frigate (FFG) – Type 22 Broadsword Class
Destroyer (DDG) – Type 42
Mine Countermeasures (MCMV) – Sandown Class
Frigate (FFG) Type 53HT-H – Jianghu IV Class
Destroyer (DDG) Type 51 – Luda II Class
Patrol Boat (PBG) Type 21 – Huangfeng Class
Frigate (FFG) – Mursame Class
Destroyer (DDK) – Takanami Class
Maritime Patrol (P-3C)
Qty
2
3
2
1
3
2
2
6
4
2
8
3
2
1
2
2
3
2
5
2
2
5
Location
South of Lombok Strait
South of Lombok Strait
Lombok Strait
North of Lombok Strait
Nouth of Lombok Strait
Flores Sea
Flores Sea
Flores Sea
Flores Sea
Flores Sea
Darwin, Australia
Darwin, Australia
South of Sunda Strait
South of Sunda Strait
North of Sunda Strait
Sundra Strait
South China Sea
South China Sea
South China Sea
South China Sea
South China Sea
Kuching, Malaysia
MIT Lincoln Laboratory

38. Sea Lane Protection – ASEAN Forces

Platform
Indonesia
Assets
Malaysia
Assets
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Qty
Location
Frigate (FFG) – Ahmed Yani Class
Corvette – Kapitan Patimura Class
Patrol Boat (PB) – Kal Kangean Class
Patrol Boat (PB) – Kujang Class
High Speed Patrol Craft – Kodjo Class
Mine Countermeasures (MCM) – Kondor-II Class
Maritime Patrol Aircraft – N22B Searchmaster SAR
Frigate (FFG) – Samadikun Class
Corvette – Kapitan Patimura Class
Patrol Boat (PB) – DKN 504 Class
Mine Countermeasures (MCM) – Kondor II Class
Maritime Patrol Aircraft – N22SL Searchmaster SAR
Frigate (FFG) – Ahmed Yani Class
Corvette – Fatahilah Class
Fast Attack Boat – Sibaru Class
Patrol Boat (PB) – Kal Kangean Class
Maritime Patrol Aircraft – N22 Searchmaster SAR
2
4
8
5
12
3
5
3
6
10
3
6
2
3
6
8
8
South Entrance to Malacca Strait
South Entrance to Malacca Strait
Malacca Strait
Malacca Strait
Malacca Strait
Malacca Strait & South Entrance
Malacca Strait
Karimate Strait, Java Sea
Karimate Strait, Java Sea
Karimate Strait, Java Sea
Karimate Strait, Java Sea
Karimate Strait, Java Sea
South Entrance to Makassar Strait
South Entrance to Makassar Strait
Makassar Strait & South Entrance
Makassar Strait
Makassar Strait
Frigate (FFG) – Lekiu Class
Corvette – Kasturi Class
Patrol Boat (PB) – Sri Selangor Class
Mine Countermeasures (MCM) – Mahamiru Class
Maritime Patrol Aircraft – B200T Super King Air SAR
2
2
16
2
4
Malacca Stait
Malacca Strait
Malacca Strait
Malacca Strait
Malacca Strait
MIT Lincoln Laboratory

39. Counter-Terrorism Operations

USSOCOM
Operational
Coordination
Supporting
CINCs
USTRANSCOM
USSTATCOM
Indonesian Commands
Malaysian Commands
Thai Commands
Operational &
Tactical Control
Operational & Tactical Control
PACAF
Combatants
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SOCOM
Combatants
Tactical
Coordination
Indonesian Combatants
Malaysian Combatants
Thai Combatants
MIT Lincoln Laboratory

40. Counter-Terrorism Task Force AOR

JI: Thailand
JI: Malaysia
JI: Central Sulawesi, Indonesia
GAM: Aceh, Indonesia
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory

41. U.S. Force Structure – Counter Terrorism

Aceh/Malacca Strait AOR
SOCOM
Assets
Air
Assets
SOCOM Unit
Special Forces Team
Qty
2
Assigned with:
Kopassus, Combat
Group I, - Aceh
Special Forces Team
1
Kopassus, Combat
Group V (CounterTerrorism) - Aceh
ISR Coordination Team 1
Kopassus, Combat
Group IV (Intel) Jakarta
Special Forces Team
2
21st GKN Sungei
Udang, Malaysia
Special Forces Team
1
1st Inf. Div.
Changwat Trang,
Thailand
MC2A*
2
Singapore
E-2C
2
Singapore
KC-10*
2
Singapore
Rivet Joint
1
Singapore
F-15E
12
Penang, Malaysia
RQ-1B,Predator-B
1(4) Penang, Malaysia
RQ-7, Shadow 600
4(3) BandaAceh
Aceh, Indonesia
Sulawesi/Makassar Strait AOR
SOCOM Unit
Qty
Special Forces Team 2
MC2A*
E-2C
KC-135*
Rivet Joint
F/A-18
F-16
RQ-1B, Predator B
RQ-7, Shadow 600
Assigned with:
Kopassus, Combat
Group II, Sulawesi
1 Mactan AB, Philippines
2 Mactan AB, Philippines
2 Mactan AB, Philippines
1 Singapore
8 Mactan AB, Philippines
8 Mactan AB, Philippines
1(4) Ujungpandang, Sulawesi
2(3) Poso, Sulawesi, Indonesia
* Same assets are supporting USCINCPAC Sea Lane Protection effort
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory

42. MC2A Employment

E-2C
JTIDS
Predator
MC2A
F-15E
Shadow
600
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory

43.

NM
500
SOCOM Teams
Bases
Predator A
1st Inf /Special
Ops
400
Predator Orbits
Firescout Orbits
Shadow UAV
Orbits
KC-135R
RC-135W
B2/CAOC
300
Predator #2 /
Predator B
21 GKN
N
Kopassus Combat
Group V
E2-C
Kopassus Combat
Group I
B3
S
USN Firescout
Orbit Areas
200
HSV-2
B1
100
Terrorist
Bombing
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100
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
200
300
400
500
600

44. SOCOM Assets

Thailand
1st Inf. Div./Special Ops
KC-10
RJ
MC2A
Predator-B
Shadow UAV
SOCOM Teams
Malaysia
Kopassus
Combat 21 GKN
Group V
E-2C
Kopassus
Combat
Group 1
21 GKN
F-15E (4)
30 min
Gnd Alert
Singapore
Indonesia
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory

45.

1700
1600
1800
Predator A
KC-135
F/A-18 (4)
Predator A
Kopassus
Combat
Group II
Kalimantan,
Indonesia
0
Kopassus
Combat
Group II
Global Hawk
(SIGINT)
F/A-18 (4)
30 min
Gnd Alert
Mactan AB, PI
Sulawesi,
Indonesia
21 GKN
-100
Population Density
Bases - GS
MC2A
Predator-A/B
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MIT LincolnShadow
Laboratory
UAV
SOCOM Teams

46. SOCOM Assets

E-2C
SOCOM Assets
KC-135
F/A-18 (4)
30 min
Gnd Alert
Mactan AB, PI
F/A-18 (4)
Kopassus
Combat
Group II
Kalimantan,
Indonesia
Kopassus Global Hawk
Combat
Group II
Sulawesi,
Indonesia
21 GKN
Population Density
MC2A
Predator-B
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MIT LincolnShadow
Laboratory
UAV
SOCOM Teams

47. SOCOM Assets

E-2C
KC-135
SOCOM Assets
F/A-18 (4)
30 min
Gnd Alert
Mactan AB, PI
F/A-18 (4)
Kopassus
Combat
Group II
Kalimantan,
Indonesia
Ujungpandang
(UAV Base)
Kopassus Global Hawk
Combat
(SIGINT)
Group II
Sulawesi,
Indonesia
21 GKN
Population Density
MC2A
Predator-A/B
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MIT Lincoln Shadow
Laboratory
UAV
SOCOM Teams

48. SOCOM Assets

Thailand
1st Inf. Div./Special Ops
KC-10
RJ
MC2A
Predator-A/B
Shadow UAV
SOCOM Teams
Malaysia
Kopassus
Combat 21 GKN
Group V
E-2C
Kopassus
Combat
Group 1
21 GKN
F-22 (4)
30 min
Gnd Alert
Signapore
Indonesia
999999-48
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory

49.

500
400
B2 – Penang
300
B3 – Polonia
200
100
B1 – Paya Lebar
0
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100
200
300
400
500
600
700
MIT Lincoln Laboratory

50.

500
Predator A
400
KC-135R
RC-135W
B2
300
E2-C
Predator A
B3
200
B1
100
999999-50
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MIT Lincoln Laboratory
100
200
300
400
500

51. SOCOM Assets

E-2C
KC-135
SOCOM Assets
F/A-18 (4)
30 min
Gnd Alert
Mactan AB, PI
F/A-18 (4)
Kopassus
Combat
Group II
Kalimantan,
Indonesia
Ujungpandang
(UAV Base)
Kopassus Global Hawk
Combat
(SIGINT)
Group II
Sulawesi,
Indonesia
21 GKN
Population Density
MC2A
Predator-A/B
999999-51
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MIT Lincoln Shadow
Laboratory
UAV
SOCOM Teams

52. Western Theater

500
500
400
300
Base 1
200
100
0
999999-52
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100
200
300
400
500
600
MIT Lincoln Laboratory