66.91K

maat370

1.

Applying Probability Theory to Enhance Financial Risk
Management Strategies
Aruzhan Altynbek
December 5, 2024
Aruzhan Altynbek
Applying Probability Theory to Enhance Financial Risk Management
December 5, 2024
Strategies
1 / 10

2.

Abstract
Integration of probability theory in financial risk management.
Focus on improving decision-making, portfolio management, and
regulatory compliance.
Aruzhan Altynbek
Applying Probability Theory to Enhance Financial Risk Management
December 5, 2024
Strategies
2 / 10

3.

Introduction
Importance of Financial Risk Management:
Ensures institutional stability.
Highlights shortcomings in traditional methods.
Why Probability Theory?
Quantifies uncertainty effectively.
Offers innovative strategies for risk management.
Aruzhan Altynbek
Applying Probability Theory to Enhance Financial Risk Management
December 5, 2024
Strategies
3 / 10

4.

Objectives
1
Develop probabilistic models for financial risk analysis.
2
Integrate statistical methods for uncertainty quantification.
3
Validate models with real-world case studies.
4
Provide actionable recommendations for financial institutions.
Aruzhan Altynbek
Applying Probability Theory to Enhance Financial Risk Management
December 5, 2024
Strategies
4 / 10

5.

Literature Review
Existing Methods:
Value-at-Risk (VaR)
Monte Carlo Simulations
Bayesian Networks
Identified Gaps:
Addressing high market volatility
Tackling systemic risks
Study Contribution:
Advanced probabilistic techniques for comprehensive risk strategies
Aruzhan Altynbek
Applying Probability Theory to Enhance Financial Risk Management
December 5, 2024
Strategies
5 / 10

6.

Methodology
Model Development:
Use stochastic processes, distributions, Bayesian inference.
Incorporate dynamic market models.
Data Collection:
Sources: Public databases, historical financial data.
Process: Data preprocessing for consistency.
Simulation and Validation:
Monte Carlo testing with historical data.
Benchmarking against traditional methods.
Case Studies:
Applications in portfolio management, credit risk analysis, and
forecasting.
Aruzhan Altynbek
Applying Probability Theory to Enhance Financial Risk Management
December 5, 2024
Strategies
6 / 10

7.

Expected Outcomes
Improved prediction accuracy.
Enhanced understanding of market uncertainties.
Framework integration with existing practices.
Practical policy recommendations for systemic risk mitigation.
Aruzhan Altynbek
Applying Probability Theory to Enhance Financial Risk Management
December 5, 2024
Strategies
7 / 10

8.

Significance of the Study
Academic Contributions:
Advances in probabilistic finance.
Practical Implications:
Tools for institutions to navigate uncertainty.
Strengthening market resilience.
Aruzhan Altynbek
Applying Probability Theory to Enhance Financial Risk Management
December 5, 2024
Strategies
8 / 10

9.

Conclusion
Summary of the proposal’s purpose and approach.
Emphasis on the transformative potential for financial risk
management.
Aruzhan Altynbek
Applying Probability Theory to Enhance Financial Risk Management
December 5, 2024
Strategies
9 / 10

10.

References
Hull, J. (2022). Risk Management and Financial Institutions. Wiley.
Embrechts et al. (1997). Modeling Extremal Events for Insurance and
Finance.
McNeil et al. (2015). Quantitative Risk Management. Princeton
University Press.
Aruzhan Altynbek
Applying Probability Theory to Enhance Financial Risk Management
December 5, 2024
Strategies
10 / 10
English     Русский Правила