Introduction to probability quantitative methods

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LECTURE 6
INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY
QUANTITATIVE METHODS
Saidgozi Saydumarov
[email protected]
Sherzodbek Safarov
[email protected]

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Lecture outline
The meaning of probability and relevant concepts
The basic operations of probability
Sets, combination, and permutation
Mathematical expectation

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Experiment vs Sample Space
• The probability is a chance or likelihood of an event to happen
• An experiment is an activity with an observable result
• The trials – repetition of an experiment
• The outcomes – results of each trial
• A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes
• A sample point is an element of the sample space
• An Event is a subset of the sample space

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Experiment vs Sample Space
Experiment: rolling a die
Sample space: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Event: rolling a 1; rolling a number less
than 5; rolling an even number
Probability is a numerical measure of
the chance (or likelihood) that a
particular event will occur.
Probability of event occurring =