Japan. The relationship between real GDP and real primary exports

1.

The relationship between real GDP
and Real Primary Exports
Manchester Metropolitan University
Econometrics: Analysis and
Forecasting
Kantemir Tekebassov
14043271

2. Context

■ Motivation behind the country selection
■ Country profile
■ GDP and Export relationship
■ Methodology
■ Results
■ Conclusion

3. Reason of choice

■ 3rd largest economy in the world
■ Japanese cultural philosophy in their economy
■ Small agricultural area – High yield
■ Worldwide known mastery of manufacturing
■ Infrastructure investments

4. Country profile

1980
Nominal GDP - $1,086,988 million
2015
Nominal GDP - $4,383,076 million
Real GDP - $1,152,382 million
Real GDP - $4,341,086 million
Nominal GDP and Real GDP comparison
$7 000 000 000 000,00
$6 000 000 000 000,00
$5 000 000 000 000,00
$4 000 000 000 000,00
$3 000 000 000 000,00
$2 000 000 000 000,00
$1 000 000 000 000,00
GDP (current US$)
Real GDP
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
$0,00

5. GDP Growth

GDP Growth
50,00%
40,00%
30,00%
20,00%
10,00%
0,00%
-10,00%
-20,00%
2015 -11.41%

6. GDP composition

GDP composition
100%
2014
90%
Agriculture: 1.17%
80%
70%
Industry: 26.86%
60%
Services, etc: 71.97%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Agriculture, value added (% of GDP)
Services, etc., value added (% of GDP)
Industry, value added (% of GDP)

7. Real Export

Real Exports
1980
$900 000 000 000,00
$800 000 000 000,00
$132.1 billion
$700 000 000 000,00
$600 000 000 000,00
$500 000 000 000,00
$400 000 000 000,00
$300 000 000 000,00
$200 000 000 000,00
$100 000 000 000,00
2015
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
$0,00
$580.4 billion

8. Export Structure

Export structure
14%
13%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4,70%
4,40%
4%
2%
2,10%
1,80%
Industrial Printers
Refined Petroleum
0%
Cars
Vehicle Parts
Integrated Circuits

9. Exports (% of GDP)

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Exports (% of GDP)
Exports in % of GDP
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

10. GDP and export relationship

■ No foreign constraints
■ Improved technology
■ Increased productivity
■ Economies of scale
■ More production more export

11. Methodology

Unit root test
Co – integration test
Vector Autoregressive model

12. Unit root test